Are the Russian elites sending hidden messages to President Trump? It sure looks like it.
When the war began, the majority of the Russian elites, especially the very wealthy and influential, were eagerly awaiting the end of Putinism.
Not even because they wanted that, but because it made sense given the situation.
The Russian banking and payment systems collapsed; everything was on the verge of collapse. Massive and unexpected sanctions, coupled with the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine, had left Russia in free fall.
However, as a Russian banker explained, the Washington Democrats have made a good old attempt to prevent an escalation and allowed Russia to regroup.
According to this Russian banker, the Biden administration's avoidance of escalation was even more desperate than the Obama administration's earlier refusal to supply Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles in the early days of the original Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
The loss of a perfect moment
As the Biden administration began to manage the prospects of a serious escalation, Russian elites began to develop massive contempt for America.
Some felt a sense of despair, while others in Moscow experienced a sense of bewilderment.
Moscow elites were convinced that America was wilfully squandering perfect momentum to get rid of the Putin regime and even loosen Russia's grip on other countries under its control, the Republic of Belarus, for example, or Syria and Venezuela.
Russia loves the West and at the same time despises its principles.
Many influential Russians have enthusiastically embraced Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion
The West's current sanctions and restrictions are hurting the Russian elites badly, but there is nothing they can do against the Putin regime without a dramatic blow to the regime’s structure.
For this reason, despite their initial fear, many influential Russians have enthusiastically embraced Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion.
Almost everyone in Moscow's top echelons quietly agrees that Vladimir Putin has been in the Kremlin too long, but the system he has created has shielded him.
What does Trump's return mean?
As the Biden administration began to manage the potential for escalation, the Russian elites realised that they could no longer rely on America—the only country or external power they believed was strong enough to help them.
As a result, they started adjusting to the reality of living in Vladimir Putin's war chamber and his imaginary world.
The victory of Donald Trump has instilled a sense of hope among Russian elites who were hoping for American assistance.
Nobody should believe that the upper Russian elites are comfortable around Vladimir Putin. They are not
Some high-ranking Russian officials concluded that their public statements or hidden messages could prompt President Trump to overcome the previous fear of escalation by the Biden administration, impact Russia significantly, and ultimately crush the Putin regime.
Nobody should believe that the upper Russian elites are comfortable around Vladimir Putin. They are not.
They used to be kings. Now they are super wealthy lackeys. The Kremlin can take all their belongings in an instant if it decides to do so.
Take Nikolai Patrushev, for example.
Hidden messages
Until recently, this man was second in command in terms of real power and influence in this country. Vladimir Putin overthrew him and demoted him to a mere aide to the president with no administrative powers.
Nikolai Patrushev undoubtedly saw himself as Vladimir Putin's successor at some point.
If, for whatever reason, Vladimir Putin is no longer in power, Nikolai Patrushev will certainly be one of the few who will try to seize and retain power in Russia
He certainly saw a much brighter future for his son, Dmitry Patrushev, who is now in his mid-40s. Dmitry Patrushev used to be minister of the socially important Ministry of Agriculture, but now he is one of several deputy prime ministers with no real influence.
After Vladimir Putin failed to conquer Ukraine in a blitzkrieg, it all ended unpleasantly for Patrushev, many top people in Russia, and most Russian oligarchs.
Various media outlets recently quoted Patrushev, claiming that President Trump has ‘obligations’ to those who brought him to power. Of course, this could be a typical Nikolai Patrushev conspiracy, but there could also be a more nuanced perspective.
If, for whatever reason, Vladimir Putin is no longer in power, Nikolai Patrushev will certainly be one of the few who will try to seize and retain power in Russia.
This statement by Nikolai Patrushev may therefore be a hidden message to President Trump or to the American agencies. As long as Vladimir Putin is in power, there is no way to end the war, normalise relations between Russia and America, or cut extensive ties between Russia and China.
