Is Moscow satisfied with Donald Trump's victory? Yes, Moscow is happy, but the alternative would also not be bad for Russia, as long as it meant that Trump would define and dominate the US political and social agenda.
All prominent Russian propagandists have been glorifying President Trump and criticising the Democrats—a practice they maintained throughout the entire Biden administration.
President Trump stood out as their hero due to his scepticism towards aiding Ukraine and his general positivity towards the idea of striking a deal with Vladimir Putin.
However, Moscow would have been excited even if President Trump had lost re-election because Moscow determined that his supporters would then have been rioting in American cities.
Moscow still yearns for a repeat of what happened on 6 January, on a much larger nationwide scale in the US.
Given that President Trump is a key political figure in US politics and the social media sphere, Moscow expected Trump, whether elected president or as an outvoted contender, to comply with the Kremlin's demands.
Trump is trapped by his own promises
The Kremlin wants America to hand over Ukraine. It is inconsequential whether the outcome stems from the deal between Trump and Putin or from the diminished US interest in Kyiv due to the new Republican president's focus on domestic issues.
Moscow feels encouraged that President Trump was running on promises to rapidly end the war in Ukraine and to spare his voters from WW3. Both of Trump's campaign promises, particularly the one about World War III, are far from reality, as the Putin regime is neither suicidal nor has ever planned to initiate the war.
Putin is comfortable seeing President Trump trapped by his own unrealistic promises to his voters
Vladimir Putin is comfortable seeing President Trump trapped by his own unrealistic promises to his voters. In fact, Putin will now use the commitments made by the Trump campaign regarding Ukraine and WW3 to diplomatically blackmail President Trump and extract various concessions.
How can President Trump persuade Vladimir Putin to cease his aggressive actions, given his campaign pledge to end the war within 24 hours? Clearly, President Trump can achieve this by either completely crushing Vladimir Putin or giving him what he desires.
Anything in the middle allows for the possibility of nuclear blackmail by Moscow, potentially discouraging Trump voters and negatively impacting the Republicans in the forthcoming midterm elections for the US Congress.
Deals away from the public eye
In this respect, Putin is expecting a conciliatory attitude from President Trump towards Russia because it will be much more feasible and less problematic for the new US president to achieve what he had promised in the campaign.
Vladimir Putin adores the notion that the Trump administration's campaign promises to protect Americans from a fictitious WW3 could now trap them.
Even more, Putin is looking forward to doing business with Donald Trump again because it would involve negotiating and making deals informally, away from the public eye and official procedures.
One Kremlin insider said that, given the current demonisation of mass media in America by the Trump camp, his voters are unlikely to understand or accept the agreement between Putin and Trump that Alaska is now part of Russia.
Putin might make significant concessions to Trump in exchange for his cooperation regarding Ukraine and Europe
Anticipating off-stage communication between Moscow and Washington, estimates suggest that Putin might make significant concessions to Trump in exchange for his cooperation regarding Ukraine and Europe.
According to these expectations, Putin could offer very valuable counter-favours, even illegal ones, such as high percentages (15%–50%) from the possible release of frozen Russian capital in the US.
Such deals would be a "mousetrap" offer from the Kremlin's point of view. Vladimir Putin perceives that President Trump will reject that rebate offer, but the Kremlin wants to see whether and to what extent President Trump would be willing to elaborate on other similarly illegal possibilities.
The Kremlin's ideas regarding Elon Musk
The Kremlin's expectations of Elon Musk's business plans, especially after his strong support for Trump in his bid for a second presidential term, should not be underestimated.
Reports of lively communications between Musk and Putin over the past two years suggest that Putin is influencing the American billionaire and that he is only now looking to use him.
Putin is planning to use Elon Musk for his China-Russia-America endeavours
Vladimir Putin believes that his positive relationships with Xi Jinping and Elon Musk can make him a valuable intermediary between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi.
Vladimir Putin is planning to use Elon Musk for his China-Russia-America endeavours. Moscow expects Musk to undertake significant projects in Russia in return. The project could involve the production of Tesla vehicles and cryptocurrency mining facilities in Russia, or it could involve space exploration or asteroid defence.
Russia is not good at war, but it excels at quiet, clandestine influence operations, also known as "active measures," which the KGB first introduced to subvert, compromise, corrupt, and eventually neutralise enemies.
These skills, inherited from the USSR, will be in full swing during the forthcoming term of Donald Trump.
