The assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Pennsylvania will have two major political consequences. One on the outcome of the presidential elections on November 5, and the other on the state of political America after these elections.
The first consequence is already visible and clear to many. After Joe Biden's desperate performance in the CNN TV debate, it was difficult to imagine Trump not winning. But after the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump's chances of returning to the White House after four years seem almost unattainable for his rival, be it President Biden or someone else.
Probably due to this overwhelming certainty, the primary focus of political discussion in the US, and not just in the US, is on post-election America, the state of its political society, and, most importantly, the ability to overcome the deep polarisation that reached its peak in the days following the assassination attempt on Trump.
Trump and his inner circle will play a crucial role in shaping this new political spirit in America. President Biden, the Democratic Party, and even the entire government will play more of a supporting role.
The GOP convention, which begins today in Milwaukee, should answer whether Trump has enough political vision and responsibility to call Americans to unity, not continued conflict.
"His opportunity now is to present himself as someone who can rise above the attack on his life and unite the country," concluded the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal.
But are Trump and his team prepared to take this undoubtedly well-intentioned advice from concerned Americans?
Diagnosis from Moscow
Everything coming from the Republican camp, particularly from the conservative faction closest to Trump, indicates that this would unfortunately be different. Here is a fairly accurate analysis that reflects well the direction of political thinking of the majority of Republicans and Trump supporters:
“After numerous attempts to remove candidate Trump from the political arena using legal instruments at first, courts, the prosecutor’s office, attempts to politically discredit and compromise the candidate it was obvious to all outside observers that his life was in jeopardy.”
This reaction did not come from America, but from Russia. On behalf of the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin, this was the first reaction of press secretary Dmitry Peskov to the news of the assassination attempt on Trump. At the time, none of the European and allied governments reacted beyond condemning the act and expressing a desire to end the violence in the United States.
The Kremlin has formally annulled Putin's earlier statement that their preferred candidate was Joe Biden as a deception
However, Moscow described the assassination attempt on Trump as a sublimation of the general sentiments among Republican voters towards the general context in which their preferred candidate, Trump, has been leading the race for a new term as president.
With this reaction, the Kremlin has formally annulled Putin's earlier statement that their preferred candidate was Joe Biden as a deception. More importantly, Trump's return to the White House will be a significant event for Moscow politics.
Slovakia and Pennsylvania
A recent, very similar experience in Europe further demonstrates that shooting at Donald Trump will not pacify rising political passions, as the majority of the moderate American political public hopes.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who most Trump and Democratic Party voters have probably never heard of, directly accused the opposition of being behind the assassination attempt in his first public speech since recovering from the attack on May 15, which he survived.
I do believe Joe Biden is responsible for the shooting today - Lauren Boebert
He described his assassin as "an activist of the Slovak opposition... a messenger of evil and political hatred, that the politically unsuccessful and frustrated opposition has fanned to unmanageable proportions."
Apart from the fact that Fico is currently in power and Trump is actively seeking a return to power, all the other similarities suggest that Trump and the Republicans in America are unlikely to adopt any other strategy than attacking their political opponents for their alleged involvement in the assassination attempt.
In this regard, Lauren Boebert, an ultra-conservative member of the US Congress, made the statement in the early hours following the Pennsylvania attack, setting the course of the Republican Party's political thinking: "I do believe Joe Biden is responsible for the shooting today."
The attempt to kill Donald Trump happened at a time when his electorate was already deeply entrenched in distrust of all institutions, from the president and the administration to the courts, police, FBI, and security services.
Years of the populist narrative fuelled by Trump have created an impenetrable armour of distrust and even hatred for every part of the government system. They see the court cases against Trump as a clear "witch hunt" and a dirty instrumentalization of the state by the alienated Democratic establishment.
That is why conspiracy theories about the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, have been circulating on social media, an area where Trump and his propaganda allies excel.
Who will benefit from America's division?
It is not possible to fight this effectively with a counter-campaign about the state of the economy, inflation, reducing unemployment, and the need for America to be influential in all major global crises.
Trump simply does not need to make a shift and urge his voters to abandon all the previous beliefs he has spent years promoting. The assassination attempt, which he narrowly escaped despite suffering a minor injury, provided the final confirmation of his years-long claims.
Trump's possible attempt to call voters to tolerance, forgiveness, and a return to a tolerant political society would be very risky for the success of his presidential candidacy
Moreover, his possible attempt to call them to tolerance, forgiveness, and a return to a tolerant political society would be very risky for the success of his presidential candidacy. Some loyal voters would see it as a sign of weakness.
Therefore, the post-election consequences for America and its political life look anything but rosy, and the intensification of internal conflict is quite certain. Among the global observers who are keenly interested in the outcome of the November elections, only the authoritarian regimes from Russia to Iran and China, as well as the growing fronts of the ultra-right in Europe, are eagerly awaiting this development.
