Rarely, if ever, do historical situations repeat themselves. Reason teaches us not to believe much in the saying "History repeats itself," because what seems like a repetition to us is actually an illusion due to more or less similar circumstances in which a specific event, similar to something from the past, takes place.
6 January 2029 will certainly not be a repeat of the destructive 6 January 2021, when Donald Trump and his supporters tried to overthrow the 250-year-old democratic order. They simply won't be able to seek a third presidential term.
But that future 6 January will dawn under more or less the same circumstances as its "ancestor" from 2021. That became clear when Trump declared victory early Wednesday as the legitimately elected 47th president of the US.
Trump's followers admit that their leader is unpredictable, but they consider this to be his outstanding quality, particularly in global affairs.
However, his forthcoming presidential term will be completely predictable. After all, Trump's whole idea of running for the third time was to repeat the period from 2016 to 2020, given that he considered it the best in American history.
Time for revenge
Despite critics' tendency to label his first term as a deviation and a "mistake" in the system, today demonstrates the opposite—that Trump's presidency has become the new norm, while Biden's term in the meantime was a 4-year deviation that failed to fix the bug.
The new Trump mandate will be vindictive, writes Susan Glasser in The New Yorker. "The former President will return to the White House older, less inhibited, and far more dangerous than ever before."
Indeed, the next four years will witness numerous instances of retaliation, aimed at the associates who abandoned him in the interim (a long list exists) and the business leaders who invested in his electoral defeat. However, the most dangerous retaliation will target American democracy.
The democratic institutions of the US withstood one Trump term with outstanding effort
Simply put, the majority of Americans, persuaded by Trump, believe that two impeachments, four indictments for serious crimes, and one verdict constitute a "witch hunt" of the political swamp in Washington, which he aims to drain.
The democratic institutions of the US withstood one Trump term with outstanding effort. Of the many from the Trump administration who have testified to this, General Mark Milley's experience is the most dramatic.
The then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is the man who prevented the trampling of the Constitution and refused to turn the military against the American people and the Constitution.
But, in the next four years, will the institutions have enough strength to repeat the feat, or will they, under the weight of Trump's ego, vindictiveness, and unpredictability, begin to compromise with the populist?
Peace in Ukraine, Putin's way
The case of Ukraine will initially show how predictable the White House's future policy is. Trump's belief that he can end an almost three-year war overnight has evolved from a campaign slogan to a tangible state strategy.
Republicans have been the biggest obstacle to more decisive American support for Ukraine, both directly and by forcing the Biden administration to back down.
Trump's victory and the Republican majority in the US Senate have eliminated all barriers to a policy that will lead to ending support for Kyiv and, at the same time, get the peace process moving.
However, such peace also requires Vladimir Putin to remain in the game. Trump's peace is based on this principle. That is why Putin wanted Trump's return to the White House.
Trump's first mandate has encouraged Putin to embark on an adventure because he viewed Europe as divided
Trump's first mandate has encouraged Putin to embark on an adventure because he viewed Europe as divided and the European alliance with the US in particular has become loose.
It turned out that Putin was mistaken, as the EU (sanctions) and a strong NATO welcomed his invasion of Ukraine with enormous harmony. But with Trump's return to the White House, Putin has the chance to correct his earlier miscalculation.
With the new president, the Ukraine crisis will move towards de-escalation, but in a way that suits the aggressor.
The European protection plan
It will soon become clear whether the Europeans had a contingency plan in the event of a Trump victory. Less than 24 hours after Trump's victory announcement, the defence ministers of Germany and France will urgently meet to work for a united, stronger, and more sovereign Europe within the "new context",” as Emmanuel Macron has announced.
Another predictable path for the future Trump presidency is the loosening of the alliance with Europe, especially in terms of the security aspect. However, the Europe of today is very different from the one Trump left behind when he left the White House four years ago.
The Trump administration and the US Congress are expected to maximise their support for the Benjamin Netanyahu government's war effort
"We (Europe) need to bury one of our favourite old fallacies. Doing more for Europe is not anti-American. It can even be an act of Atlanticism. We need to carry our part of the burden. By global standards, Europe is rich, and Europe is free. It is for us to ensure that it stays that way," Helene von Bismarck, historian and senior associate fellow at RUSI, wrote on X.
However, the number of people celebrating Trump's victory in Europe today is higher than during his last term in office. Eurosceptic populists, who, like Trump, tend to make deals with Putin, are in power in Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria, and they are also on the rise in many other European countries, including France and Germany.
The Trump administration and the US Congress are expected to maximise their support for the Benjamin Netanyahu government's war effort and thus reduce the pressure on Israel to engage in peace talks.
Netanyahu's decision to fire Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on the election day in the United States seems as if the Israeli prime minister was certain of Trump's victory in advance.
Over the next four years, Trump will discover first-hand that his country's global power stems from the internal strength of its democratic institutions and not from his "talent" for making deals.
America's citizens will learn this too, as the majority have once again put their trust in the superpowers of their leader rather than the strength of their democracy.
