In a Star Wars analogy, Vladimir Putin's empire will be ready to strike when both American parties nominate the next presidential candidate.
He plans to capitalise on the fears of the Western political class, much of which the West has cultivated and shaped itself.
After almost three years of Russian aggression against Ukraine, Putin came to the conclusion that Western politicians and political parties would not risk their election chances (or re-election) because they would have to take a tough stance against Russia.
During this time, he received ample evidence from the Western elites that a direct confrontation with Russia is currently unpopular, particularly among the growing forces of the extreme right and radical left of the political spectrum.
Vladimir Putin is therefore preparing for a long game. He will take a break and then introduce despotism, aggression, and deviation into world affairs at irregular intervals, moving from one American presidential cycle to the next.
The Baltics and Moldova as bargaining chips
He came to the conclusion that he should postpone his actions and get through the next two to three years of the forthcoming Trump presidency. Then a new presidential election cycle will begin in America, after which he can resume his aggression and act on the global stage. From that point on, his aggression and deviation will only be a matter of domestic campaign rhetoric in America.
Vladimir Putin is preparing a number of initiatives to achieve a better deal in Ukraine, including the endangerment of the Baltic states and Moldova, which he intends to attack at some point. However, he also intends to use these countries as bargaining chips in the short term, particularly in his endeavours with President Trump regarding Ukraine.
Putin was never the same as any of the Soviet leaders in terms of his geopolitical ambition
Putin was never the same as any of the Soviet leaders in terms of his geopolitical ambition, nor did he ever display brilliant public speaking skills like the early communist revolutionaries Trotsky or Lenin. Moreover, Vladimir Putin was never fanatical about Russian imperialism.
His urge for global dominance only emerged much later, when he repeatedly witnessed the weakness and, in some cases, corruption of Western leaders who refrained from confronting him.
A grey man without ideology
In contrast to his Soviet predecessors, Vladimir Putin was always a grey man who was more concerned with his personal wealth and impunity than with any ideology.
Fortunately for Putin, unlike during the Cold War, Western politicians now only use Russia in general and Vladimir Putin personally for domestic campaign rhetoric.
Vladimir Putin is a skilled manipulator and recruiter. He was never an aikido master, but he knows how to use the strengths and weaknesses of his opponents against them.
Putin will persist in exploiting the fears of the West to secure a stronger bargaining position against President Trump
That is why Putin will persist in exploiting the fears of the West to secure a stronger bargaining position against President Trump.
He can now lay the groundwork to appear as though President Trump has prevented another Russian war against other countries, such as Moldova and the Baltic states. This will pave the way for Putin to reach a more favourable deal regarding Ukraine.
Even if some radical isolationists in America are perfectly fine with Putin's Russia annexing territories in Estonia and Moldova, a president like Trump will definitely oppose this.
Vladimir Putin will therefore use his alleged avoidance of facilitating aggression against Estonia and Moldova as an additional argument and even a ransom to gain a better position in the negotiations over Ukraine.
Goodwill gestures
Putin is confident that he will survive in any scenario, except the one in which President Trump decides to become a "surgeon" and initiate measures to overthrow the Putin regime.
Vladimir Putin will now make various additional and, in most cases, fake gestures of goodwill and alleged concessions to distract Trump in order to achieve a better interim performance of Russia in Ukraine. This is done to avoid such problematic, even frightening developments related to the confrontation with the President Trump.
Putin will now make various additional and, in most cases, fake gestures of goodwill and alleged concessions to distract Trump
In parallel, Putin is already preparing for his next aggression when the Republican Party nominates its new presidential candidate in a few years.
Regardless of how the West views the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, the time is on Putin's side. Vladimir Putin rules the people of the former Soviet Union, accustomed to facing challenges. Therefore, time does not limit him unless he encounters a formidable global challenger, potentially leading to internal unrest and opposition.
Fortunately for Vladimir Putin, his skilled global manipulation techniques and domestic oppression have so far enabled him to avoid this.
