Moscow is convinced that President Donald Trump was neutralised as a counterforce to Moscow in the course of the high-level meeting in Saudi Arabia a fortnight ago.
This was generally confirmed to Moscow during the meeting between President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday.
However, this does not yet mean a complete victory for the Kremlin. Moscow now anticipates the development of events initiated by the Europeans.
Moreover, Russia expects the free and democratic world to rally around Ukraine, because after the Europeans' reaction to the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, this war is no longer just about Ukraine.
It is about saving the whole of Europe, abandoned by the USA, from Vladimir Putin.
After the enormous success of Russian manipulation techniques on President Trump, which was evident in the Oval Office, there is now some uncertainty in Moscow.
Moscow did not expect President Trump to reignite speculation about the secret alliance between Trump and Putin.
The Kremlin expects Europeans and others who are upset about Russia's imperial behaviour to react. This is to be expected, as Europeans are worried that if Moscow can succeed with the Trump administration, it is hard to imagine what Moscow could do to pro-Moscow European political parties, for example, the AfD in Germany.
The Europeans are expected to go on the offensive
The economy can harm the Kremlin, but it cannot defeat it. However, the military presence of Ukraine's allies in Ukraine can do both: damage Vladimir Putin and defeat him.
Bluffing has served Vladimir Putin well in the past in most cases in some parts of the world, including in his dealings with American presidents.
On the other hand, Moscow has not been particularly successful in dealing with countries that share a common and therefore violent history with Russia.
Putin understands that the success of his tricks with the Trump administration, as demonstrated in Washington, can also have negative consequences
Vladimir Putin clearly understands that the success of his tricks with the Trump administration, as demonstrated in Washington, can also have negative consequences.
President Trump's disagreement with the rest of the West has mobilised those with a profound understanding of Russia.
Vladimir Putin is therefore now expecting a new collective force that he knows he cannot intimidate and easily win over to his side.
Historical experience as a problem
The latest developments suggest to Vladimir Putin that this new collective force will now force Moscow to pause the war, which Putin certainly does not want and never intended to do, even though he promised President Trump that he would.
Moreover, Moscow never intended to honour the peace treaty because putting a complete stop to the war would be even more catastrophic for Putin and his regime.
For him, it represents a major threat if different rivals of Russia from the past unite in order to avoid future aggression by Russia on one of the European countries.
He perceives it as a threat because he is aware that he would oppose the countries that have historical experience with Russia, which know that it cheats and violates agreements and that it attacks the small countries, which do not expect an invasion and cannot oppose it. That is why Moscow tries to avoid conflict with strong opponents.
The Kremlin remains very concerned that a pro-Ukrainian military team is in the making
The behaviour of the Europeans shows that new players are entering the game, and that is what will restore confidence to Ukraine and its president.
Initially, President Trump's confirmation that American troops would not be stationed in Ukraine as peacekeepers greatly encouraged Russia. The aggressive behaviour of the American president towards Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House meeting was even more encouraging for Moscow.
But no matter what Moscow announces publicly or how happy it is about the public dispute between Trump and Zelensky, the Kremlin remains very concerned that a pro-Ukrainian military team is in the making.
Turkey's involvement is a problem for the Kremlin
It all started when, in addition to French President Emmanuel Macron's earlier firm stance on sending military forces to Ukraine, other world leaders declared their willingness to send their peacekeepers there or provide additional substantial military support.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now also considering sending British forces to Ukraine, while incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is expected to lift restrictions on the supply of powerful weapons to Ukraine.
For Vladimir Putin, everything took a different turn when someone as powerful as Turkey began to consider joining the collective peacekeeping forces
Nevertheless, Putin was convinced that these courtiers, although very strong overall, would have avoided an opportunity to respond decisively under domestic political pressure.
For Vladimir Putin, everything took a different turn when someone as powerful as Turkey began to consider joining the collective peacekeeping forces.
This was a significant blow because Turkey is led by a bold leader who knows the local peculiarities and does not care about Vladimir Putin's empty theatrical machismo.
At this point, the situation began to change dramatically for Vladimir Putin—when the formidable and stubborn Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan declared that he not only recognised the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, but would not mind sending Turkish peacekeepers there.
With Turkey joining the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, Vladimir Putin has little chance of continuing the war. If this commitment from the European allies materialises, the Kremlin will seek a way to present it to the Russians as a success of its policy.
Before then, the Kremlin will do everything it can to prevent the Western powers from coming together in support of Ukraine, something it has been strongly encouraged to do by Washington.
