Donald Trump escalated his claims of electoral fraud towards the end of the presidential campaign, potentially leading to tensions and even violence in the post-election period.
As he did in 2016 and 2020, the Republican candidate is once again laying the groundwork for his election defeat and gives no indication that he would accept the outcome if he loses.
Donald Trump has garnered significant support from his followers to advance such a scenario. This is a frightening warning about a possible repeat of the crisis that culminated with the invasion of the US Congress by his supporters on January 6, 2021.
In the last week of September, a majority of Americans (58%) expressed concern about possible election fraud due to his heightened rhetoric.
Nearly all (86%) Republican voters expressed concern about possible fraud, which primarily influenced such a large number. Only one-third of Democratic voters expressed similar doubts.
An old, familiar song
For years, Donald Trump has been familiarising his supporters with the conspiracy theory of a major election fraud. He talked about it even before he started to engage in politics.
He said that Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney in 2012 was a "sham." He did not spare the Republican Party from accusations of vote fraud. In 2016, during the presidential nomination race, he accused his competitor Ted Cruz of "stealing" his victory in Iowa and demanded either an annulment or a repeat vote.
Everything happened again in 2016, when he also "preventively" spoke about the fraud that was being prepared for his duel with Hillary Clinton, culminating four years later when Trump introduced the concept of a "big lie" into his pre-election rhetoric. A massive vote-stealing scheme the Democrats orchestrated and carried out to prevent him from winning a second term as president.
The message is clear: if Trump fails to win, the Democratic establishment orchestrated a fraud
The matrix that Trump refers to regarding the alleged election fraud is straightforward and has remained unchanged over the years. The message is clear: if Trump fails to win, the Democratic establishment orchestrated a fraud.
“Watch for the voter fraud, because we win without voter fraud; we win so easily,” said Trump in early September. Last August, the Republican National Committee initiated a campaign to encourage supporters to serve as election observers, using the catchphrase "Too Big to Rig," a recurring theme in Trump's rallies, to emphasise the need for his victory to be sufficiently convincing to prevent tampering.
All theories of electoral fraud
The levels at which Trump "predicts" electoral fraud are not new either. One is mail-in voting, which Trump and his staff persistently suspect as the source of large numbers of fraudulent votes.
According to them, "fraud" is carried out by allowing non-citizens to vote, which is directly related to Trump's anti-immigrant policy, and this only strengthens it.
Conspiracy theories often suggest that local election administrations secretly connect across state borders to coordinate the "theft" at the highest federal level
Conspiracy theories often suggest that local election administrations secretly connect across state borders to coordinate the "theft" at the highest federal level.
None of the "fraud" models pass elementary fact-checking. For instance, the last model, which suggests a cross-border conspiracy by election administrations to falsify elections, is simply unfeasible due to the involvement of officials from the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, independents, and thousands of volunteers who are not affiliated with any party.
The House passed Safeguard American Voter Eligibility—SAVE legislation last July, which requires all voters to submit a document proving their US citizenship and prohibits voting for non-citizens.
Moreover, the Trump-friendly, conservative Heritage Foundation has failed to find more than 70 cases of non-citizens voting in elections over the past 40 years.
Preparation for the day after the election
Despite this, Donald Trump, who is currently trailing Kamala Harris by a narrow margin, will heighten his concerns about election fraud in the forthcoming weeks leading up to the election.
Donald Trump, who is currently trailing Kamala Harris by a narrow margin, will heighten his concerns about election fraud in the forthcoming weeks leading up to the election
He is moving in that direction because it proved to be a more powerful platform for voter mobilisation, particularly in the aftermath of the election (and defeat) than before it.
Trump's constant finger-pointing at election fraud, however, has a counter-effect, as it will certainly demotivate a certain number of his supporters to vote.
Conspiracy-based stories about election theft aim to prepare and conserve energy for post-election actions. Trump has already committed this act, and in 2021, his refusal to accept a change in government during elections nearly led to the complete destruction of the democratic order.
