After enormous success related to Carlson Tucker’s visit to Moscow and blockade of the Ukrainian aid bill in the US Congress, Vladimir Putin will raise the stakes sooner or later until America withdraws from the poker game he started with the US long before he invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The launch of nuclear weapons into space perfectly suits Vladimir Putin’s agenda of spooking and discouraging the West from further assistance to Ukraine. He wants to neutralise intelligence provided by the West to Ukraine and, as a result, to come out of the war Russia has been waging against Ukraine victorious.
In raising stakes, Putin does not regard the West as a threat because the West is polarised.
According to Vladimir Putin, the West has the money but could not endure a real fight. That is why information on Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in space should be taken seriously.
The Kremlin has started raising stakes and has been (at least) considering the demonstration of its nuclear potential, avoiding significant consequences.
The threat could be real or the Kremlin could be intentionally simulating willingness to use nuclear weapons in space because it would cause unrest in the American political establishment.
Moreover, the Kremlin might have leaked its intentions to use nuclear weapons and then officially denied that. Using 2 or several different legends has been the Kremlin’s typical playbook.
Do not believe the rumours until the Kremlin denies them
However, no one should forget a significant rule about Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which has never failed throughout his quarter-of-a-century rule: do not believe any rumours or leaks about Russia’s plans or intentions until the Kremlin denies them.
Just recently, both Dmitry Peskov and Sergey Lavrov officially denied Russia’s intentions to launch nuclear weapons into space. This should signal to the West that the Kremlin has been at least considering that.
If Russia denies something, that typically means Russia has been caught red-handed or at least its intentions have been revealed
For example, the Kremlin officially denied that it intended to attack Ukraine just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine.
As a standard, if Russia denies something, that typically means Russia has been caught red-handed or at least its intentions have been revealed.
The fact that Russia is outnumbered in terms of space capabilities, specifically in terms of intelligence and survey data made possible by spy and surveillance satellites, is one of the reasons it was unable to take advantage of its numerical superiority and the current US paralysis of military deliveries.
Because of accurate intelligence and coordinates provided to Ukraine by Western partners, Ukraine has been able to successfully launch strikes on Russia’s crucial military facilities in Crimea and other occupied territories.
Deepening divisions in the US
Vladimir Putin is confident that while the American agenda is not established, or at least influenced by people like Senator Rand Paul, the Kremlin could get away with anything as long as American territory remains unharmed.
Vladimir Putin, therefore, could indeed be attempting to neutralise Western reconnaissance and intelligence capabilities in space using nuclear weapons, and by doing so, making that strike on the Western infrastructure digestible and even acceptable to American conservative politicians.
Putin is convinced that if he attacked Western spy and surveillance satellites, he would not only disarm Ukrainian intelligence capabilities but he would also intensify discord in American politics
By thoroughly following what has been happening in the American Congress regarding the blockade of Ukraine aid bill, Vladimir Putin is convinced that if he attacked Western spy and surveillance satellites, he would not only disarm Ukrainian intelligence capabilities but he would also intensify discord in American politics.
He reckons that in this case, American isolationists would intensify their attacks on the Biden administration regarding the support it has been providing to Ukraine and block military aid to Ukraine because of their (unfortunately false) belief that Vladimir Putin’s requests must be satisfied to avoid WW3.
Isolationists in the US are Putin's allies
Vladimir Putin has concluded that isolationists in the American Congress are not only his allies against Ukraine, but they are also his allies against American global dominance.
On the one hand, Vladimir Putin needs an unconditional victory in Ukraine because only that would justify hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded soldiers and a damaged economy. On the other hand, Putin is convinced that he could utilise the ongoing political turbulence in America for his own global advantage.
A nuclear weapon is Vladimir Putin’s joker he will use one day anyway, because that would have the desired effect on the American isolationist politicians.
To win in Ukraine and globally, Vladimir Putin needs to convince American politicians to stop assisting Ukraine, or he needs to spook American politicians and make them afraid of further assisting Ukraine.
The peace initiative proposed by Donald Trump perfectly suits Vladimir Putin’s interests
So far, he has been successful in both. On the one hand, Vladimir Putin was able to delay America’s military supplies to Ukraine. On the other hand, he enjoys listening to Trump’s public appearances because Trump is determined to strike a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in order to (as he believes) avoid WW3.
The peace initiative proposed by Donald Trump perfectly suits Vladimir Putin’s interests because it would automatically secure and legitimise his acquisition of Ukrainian territory and would enable him to proclaim victory over Ukraine domestically.
Vladimir Putin has concluded that he would win in the American domestic partisan dispute if he actively participated - a nuclear strike in space or using fake news and disinformation that he intends to commence such an attack.
Either way, Vladimir Putin will blame the Biden administration.
It does not matter what cards are in Vladimir Putin’s hands. He has concluded that he would win either way. If he uses his royal flush and strikes American and Western satellites with nuclear weapons or if he bluffs throughout the game and raises stakes until the torn-apart political class in the US withdraws from the game and concedes to Putin’s aggression.
