The logic and rules of political elections would dictate that the Republican Party should be alarmed after its candidates' defeat in the first elections since Donald Trump began his presidential term a year ago.
However, how likely is this to actually happen?
The victories of the Democrats and their policies in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and California should serve as an early warning sign for the GOP a year before the US Congress midterms.
However, there is almost no indication that the alarm has been raised.
Donald Trump, as expected, reacted nervously, even angrily, to the news of the Democratic candidates' wins in the governor races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the mayoral race in New York.
"'TRUMP WASN'T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT," Trump posted on Truth Social.
This message contributes to the impression that the GOP does not, or does not wish to, interpret Tuesday's defeat as a reason to change its electoral strategies or even to reconsider its overall policy.
President Trump simply refuses to take any responsibility for the failure of the candidates he supported.
He will continue to refuse to review the validity of his policies, convinced that they are entirely correct and that the GOP candidate alone is responsible for certain electoral failures or for inconsistent implementation of Trump's policy.
Cloned White House policy
Even after the GOP debacle on Tuesday, Trump will not stop subordinating the party's strategy to his personal experience from last year's elections and those of 2020.
He again highlighted alleged election irregularities and fraud, this time in California, where voters supported the Democrats' proposal to reconfigure the state's voting districts, which will give the party better chances in next year's midterm elections.
He described this vote as a "giant scam," and he called the decision "unconstitutional."
Trump's pressure on Republican politicians, especially candidates, to pursue a "cloned" White House policy is not bearing fruit
Trump's pressure on Republican politicians, especially candidates, to pursue a "cloned" White House policy, which has been particularly strong over the past year, is clearly not bearing fruit.
The newly elected governor of New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill, called her Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli the "Trump of Trenton", clearly suggesting that Trump's political identity cannot benefit the citizens of New Jersey if it is merely "cloned" through Mr Ciattarelli.
However, the Republican candidate for governor had little choice but to act as a local echo of the White House's policies and its chief. Had he tried otherwise, even if he had wanted to, he would not have received an endorsement from Trump.
Analysis of results
The GOP would benefit from analysing the election results to determine the extent of the damage caused by its candidates' full identification with Trump’s policies – that is, to assess how much they might have gained had their strategies been more independent and aligned with voters' expectations.
However, this is unlikely to happen, or at best, such an analysis will end up forgotten in a drawer. Its findings would likely be seen by Trump and his circle as an attempt to change policy, perhaps even as internal subversion.
The US president did not give strong support to GOP candidates in Tuesday’s elections
The US president did not give strong support to GOP candidates in Tuesday’s elections, partly because they took place in areas where Democrats traditionally win.
However, behind this rational explanation lies a potential risk for future Republican strategies: underestimating the significance of “small” elections for tracking shifts in the electorate’s mood. The GOP and Trump appear to be doing precisely that at present.
Divisions among the Democrats
Trump inspires great self-confidence within the Republican political establishment regarding the correctness of the policies he has pursued over the past year.
For this reason, neither he nor the party will alter or even adjust the main directions of these policies in the coming year, especially the economic measures in the "One Big Beautiful Bill", the tough stance on migrants, and the tariff barriers imposed on the world.
The Democrats' victory will, in fact, provide the Republicans with a favourable opportunity to plan strategies for next year's midterms - Gov. Mikie Sherrill
The Democrats' victory in Tuesday's elections will, in fact, provide the Republicans with a favourable opportunity to plan strategies for next year's midterms.
Given that the results in New Jersey, Virginia, and especially New York have revealed diverse ideological views within the Democratic Party, the party now faces the significant task of channelling this pluralism towards a common goal – namely, avoiding the risk of internal divisions.
This internal process within the Democratic Party will be of particular interest to Trump and may even represent the greatest hope for the success of the Republican Party candidates in next year's race.
If his policies and authority remain unchallenged, Republicans will seek to deepen divisions within the opposing camp.
However, expecting electoral success in 2026 solely because of potential ideological and programme confusion among the Democrats is not a promising strategy for the Republicans.
If they do not take seriously the causes of their defeats in New York City, Virginia, New Jersey, and California and use them as a warning to correct previous policies, the 2026 midterms could easily result in another defeat for the Republicans.
