No one should be surprised that Russia has turned its back on Armenia. It is natural for Russia to betray and retreat if that serves its interests.
Russia has thrown Armenia under the bus because it can no longer manifest the required political and military strength in the Karabakh region. Also, Russia is scared to displease Turkey, which views Azerbaijan as a sibling state.
Russia has always been a scavenger, searching for unrest, war or ethnic frictions to profit from them.
The Chinese Manchuria and Moldovan Transnistria are just two examples of this Russian habit. Therefore, Russia could not avoid the Karabakh conflict for its own benefit.
Russia was not in Karabakh to defend Armenia and the Armenian people. It was there to ignite the conflict that enabled its armed forces to remain in the territory and thus have an influence and presence in the region.
It was not there to help and protect Armenians, but to defend its imperial interests in that significant region.
Azerbaijan took advantage of Russia's becoming weak
The war it started in Ukraine weakened Russia significantly and undermined its capabilities. Russia no longer has the resources to maintain its influence in the Karabakh region and could not prevent Azerbaijan from seizing control of the disputed area inhabited by Armenians and part of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan used Russian weakness to advance and seize control of territory, which, according to the treaty of the fragmentation of the USSR, was the legitimate territory of Azerbaijan.
Turkey supports Azerbaijan, the country Russia is afraid of because it refrains from conflicts with countries who are not only strong, but also do not hesitate to reveal their strength. Because of that fear of Turkey, it is running away from Karabakh with its tail between its legs.
Russia knows well that Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not hesitate, and will not think twice before slapping it in the face, as he did once before when he ordered the shooting down of Sukhoi 24, a Russian fighting jet in 2015.
Moscow will continue to destabilise Armenia
After the Azerbaijani occupation of the Karabakh region, Russian propaganda tried to hide the actual reasons why it not only abandoned the Armenians, but even agreed to accept the killing of several Russian soldiers in the Karabakh region where so-called Russian peacekeepers had been stationed.
While Russia is running away from the Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance, it will not retreat entirely from Armenia. It will regroup and reactivate its well-polished scavenger tendencies, exploiting the Armenian people.
Armenian and Azerbaijani diasporas in Russia are large, and about the same in size.
Armenian people living in Russia irritate the Russian chauvinist majority more than Azerbaijani people because of their overwhelmingly vocal interest in various domestic public matters. Azerbaijani people keep a much lower profile, and lead behind-the-scenes low-profile lives.
Armenians in Russia are more noticeable, like the notorious head of Russia Today, state-owned propaganda outlet Margarita Simonyan, and many other Armenian descendants, including Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who tries to hide his Armenian roots.
Noticeably quieter people of the Armenian diaspora play a more dominant role in public support of Putin's regime than representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora.
Abuse of historical emotions
However, it is entirely understandable why Armenia has chosen to exercise nearly servile loyalty to Russia.
Historical wounds suffered by the Armenian people are deep, and not limited to the tragic events of 1912-1913: the Armenian genocide, which still raises many controversies around the globe.
The Armenian people mourn the loss of a distinguished and influential Armenian state ruled by King Tigranes the Great.
Even Mount Ararat, which has significance in Armenian culture and everyday life, is actually physically located in Turkey and has the Turkish name of Ağrı Dağı.
As Russia regularly does and has been doing throughout its violent history, filled with deceptions and conquests, it utilised the historical grievances of the Armenian people to place itself into the current conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The current dispute in the Karabakh region started because Armenia, driven by historical grievances, advanced to the Karabakh region in 1992. This region was the territory of the Azerbaijani Republic of the USSR and, thus, Azerbaijan. After the collapse of the USSR, when Armenia decided to seize Karabakh, it was the legitimate territory of Azerbaijan.
No one should be surprised that Russia will now explore and try to use the historical grievances of the Armenian people regarding the great Armenia during Tigranes the Great to spark discontent and unrest in its society, and try to remove the pro-Western prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and install a pro-Russian proxy and lackey.
Similarity with Ukraine
Russia has been fabricating false sentiments and justifications to please the domestic patriotic majority. In parallel, Russia has been planning a coup in Armenia to subvert discouraged Armenian people, and eventually transform Armenia into a smaller version of Belarus in the Caucasus region.
Russia is currently running away from a strong opponent in the Karabakh region which has already declared willingness to cross lines set by Russia and is not afraid of it.
In this respect, the parallel with Ukraine is very appropriate. The conclusion of the Ukrainian aggression will be portrayed in Russia in a manner similar to the current Karabakh defeat.
Margarita Simonyan and other Kremlin operatives from the propagandist industry know how to convince the public that Russia left Ukraine because it is too great to stay in Ukraine.
