Recently, I had the opportunity to meet with a group of experienced journalists and experts specialising in international relations, political science, and economics to discuss the world affairs.
As the hours-long exchange of ideas was about to end, we came to realise that there is not much to be hopeful for the future.
It is agreed by everyone that the likelihood of a major conflict is becoming more tangible than ever. In a very short time, we could witness:
- A new war between Israel and Lebanon
- A conflict between Russia and NATO caused by Ukraine’s admittance to NATO
- A sudden turmoil in the Balkans
And this would only be the beginning: there is no doubt that NATO's 75th anniversary, to be celebrated in Washington in July, will bring about tensions.
Turkey, which had previously objected to Finland and Sweden’s NATO accessions but later agreed to it, will face a tough decision as to whether or not vote for Ukraine and Georgia to become NATO members at the upcoming summit.
Turkey, which so far seems to be agreeing with Russia in many regards, will have a hard time both in terms of deciding to cast its vote in favour of Ukraine and Georgia or not and also if Hamas is designated as a terrorist organisation that is an "enemy of NATO".
A country that is currently at war could become a member of NATO
For the first time in history, a country that is currently at war could become a member of NATO. The United States is working relentlessly to make this happen.
Recently, an expert with a considerable focus on NATO said, "NATO statements are first drawn up by the US, then sent to UK, France and Germany, and after their approval, they are dispatched to other countries."
If Ukraine is accepted as a NATO member, we will understand whether Putin's nuclear weapon threat is actually true or not
If Ukraine is accepted as a NATO member, we will understand whether Putin's nuclear weapon threat is actually true or not. Also, let us not forget that the Russian soldiers who were withdrawn from Armenia’s border are now replaced by US soldiers, and a Russian navy frigate and a nuclear-powered submarine arrived at Havana harbour last week.
According to many, Russian economy is weakened, increasing the probability of a conflict with NATO.
Right-wing populism
As geopolitical risks have been affecting investment decisions for the last decade, the countries in the region have been experiencing difficulties in attracting foreign capital.
As for Europe, it is obvious that Macron's call for snap elections was a calculated decision. No one can say for sure that French citizens, who did not give way to far-right resurgence in the last elections, will do the same this time.
Right-wing populist parties are in power in the Netherlands, Austria and Italy, but it is unlikely, for now, that France will share the same fate as those three.
Even the most left-wing governments in Europe are gaining public support thanks to their anti-Turkey attitude nowadays
Also, it will not be possible for any EU member to discuss the Customs Union soon due to the snap election process that has been initiated right after the 2024 European Parliament election, because no government will want to appear to be in talks with Turkey.
Even the most left-wing governments in Europe are gaining public support thanks to their anti-Turkey attitude nowadays.
Vice Presidents are as important as Presidents
As I was writing this article, Trump and Biden were facing off in their first presidential debate. According to the result of the debate, Trump is now the presidential candidate of the Republicans.
Although this has not been made official yet, the situation shows that he is the de facto candidate. Biden, on the other hand, appears like that he is going to enter the election with the current Vice President.
In this US election, Vice Presidents are as important as Presidents
Trump has not yet announced his candidate for the VP. The interesting thing is that If Biden loses his ability to serve as president or dies after being elected, Kamala Harris will be assuming the role until the elections, which, by the way, not a weak probability.
But if Trump is found to be ineligible to return to the White House due to a mix of state and federal charges, then his Vice President will take office. So, in this US election, Vice Presidents are as important as Presidents.
Israel-Lebanon conflict
As far as the Israel-Lebanon conflict goes, let me refresh your memory as to what happened: Tensions have first broken out in the summer of 2006 when Israel had opened fire on Lebanese family on the beach.
On 12 July, tensions escalated even further and turned into a violent conflict when Hezbollah's paramilitary wing kidnapped eight Israeli soldiers, killed two of them, and then launched a salvo of rockets from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
So, Israel declared war on Lebanon and blockaded the country. To retaliate, Hezbollah intensified attacks against Israel. The conflict lasted more than a month and stopped when the United Nations intervened in Lebanon to ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern part of the country.
Influential countries could conduct shuttle diplomacy between the parties as a preventative measure. Otherwise, we won’t be talking interest rates, inflation, stock market or gold price in 2025 - Emre Alkin
However, the fact that the Israeli army killed more than 1,000 Lebanese civilians generated great condemnation around the world. Now the Israeli war cabinet, emboldened by the recklessness of being a "war criminal suspect", is preparing to avenge the 2006 attacks by Lebanon.
At the meeting, a researcher who has recently scoured the Israeli archives told us that "The founding philosophy of the State of Israel is this: Divide the Arabs, place the Kurds in the middle of the region, make non-Arab Muslims your allies."
Any Israeli action, motivated by the last two articles of this policy, would definitely mean a breach of Turkey's red lines. Therefore, today, the biggest target of the Zionist diaspora is currently Turkey and its President.
Who will prevent a third world war
Meanwhile, in the US, we know that Trump is ahead in presidential polls. Evangelicals, a significant force in US politics, decided to support Trump, as Trump claims that Christianity under threat and there are rumours saying he may sign a law to make the United States a “Christian Nation”.
According to another poll, 72% of church-going Americans say they will vote for Trump. As I have mentioned earlier, Trump is facing 34 felony charges and even a single of them could lead to Trump's removal after he rises to office. If this happens, the Vice President will take over.
Who knows, maybe the person who will prevent a third world war will be the Vice President.
In the meantime, influential countries could conduct shuttle diplomacy between the parties as a preventative measure. Otherwise, we won’t be talking interest rates, inflation, stock market or gold price in 2025.
