First of all, let me say that Iran does not possess a genuinely effective army. Diplomacy is the most important weapon that Iran has been using so far.
In the region, there is also the presence of Iranian government organisation SAVAK (Organization of National Security and Information), which is as effective as MOSSAD.
Israeli and Iranian secret services carry out operations regularly in the countries of the region to constantly create turmoil and chaos.
It is not unusual either for Iran to deviate from its so-called “strategic patience“ and launch missile attacks from one end of the Arabian Peninsula to the other. Therefore, this issue requires further discussion from different perspectives.
As the attack on the Iranian mission in Damascus is considered an attack on Iranian soil according to International Law, Iran could not leave this charge unanswered.
In a world where the Israeli Government is being tried on charges of genocide in Gaza, Netanyahu’s only chance to exonerate himself was to launch an attack on Iran.
Frankly, Israel’s attack on the Iranian Mission in Damascus was quite timely considering the fact that Iran’s “Supreme Leader” Khamenei is 84 years old, has aspiring mullahs for leadership, and on the other hand, the accumulated anger of the Iranian people has been growing against the current regime.
A brief sigh of relief
The economy is quite bad in Iran, where religion and politics are intertwined in their ideologies.
Food prices have increased 14 times in Iran since last year. Iranian people are experiencing enormous hardship while their government keeps spending money so that their regime remains effective in the region.
Therefore, Israel’s attack helped the Iranian Regime take a brief sigh of relief. It is reported that the Iranian regime woke up citizens at night and gathered them in the city squares to celebrate the attack after Israel’s unsuccessful retaliation.
With this retaliatory attack, Israel has both tested its air defence system and created an opportunity to give a more severe response to Iran in order to make the world forget about what is going on in Gaza
But with this retaliatory attack, Israel has both tested its air defence system and created an opportunity to give a more severe response to Iran in order to make the world forget about what is going on in Gaza.
According to experts, Netanyahu has bigger plans. His initial plan is to completely annex Gaza.
Gaza has a symbolic meaning because David’s first temple is in Gaza, but the chief reason is the natural gas reserves situated off the coast of Gaza.
His second plan is to draw the United States to its side in a possible operation into Iran. It is difficult for Israeli jets, which have previously hit some facilities in Iraq, to attack Iran without support this time.
US Elections
Biden, on the other hand, does not want to take any risk before the elections. He is even pushing Netanyahu to call for snap elections. He doesn’t want to get further involved in the problem because he’s already lost the votes of Muslim Americans and anti-Zionists.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is determined to keep his patience until the US elections are completed. He could be thinking, “Trump will win anyway.“ But he is not a sure bet either.
Trump constantly conveys his disapproval of the US military presence overseas. Therefore, it is not certain that he will provide military support to Netanyahu even if he gives his diplomatic support.
In June, not only the presidential candidates but also the future vice-presidential candidates of the United States will be announced to the public. If the Democrats pick a strong vice-presidential candidate, Trump’s likelihood of winning the 2024 presidential election will weaken.
Michelle Obama emerges as the top contender to replace Biden as presidential candidate. Recent polls suggest that even Barack Obama might accept the role of vice president on the grounds of the Twenty-second Amendment of the US Constitution, caps the service of a president at ten years and stipulates that If a person rises to the office of president without election and serves less than 2 years, s/he may run for 2; otherwise, s/he can serve no more than a single elected term.
Putin has benefited the most from what has happened so far. People have almost forgotten about the war in Ukraine, with their focus on Gaza now
As you may remember, Barack Obama had made a joke in a speech at the end of his second term, implying that he would like to run for office again and win, but the Constitution does not allow him to do so.
Most voters seem to be reluctant to vote for Biden due to his health condition. And in the possibility that the presidency needs to be handed over to a person who has the capacity to govern the country in case of emergency, voters could cast their votes for the new, powerful candidate.
Putin, on the other hand, has benefited the most from what has happened so far. People have almost forgotten about the war in Ukraine, with their focus on Gaza now.
Strait of Hormuz
It appears like the recent developments will not affect the energy market negatively like the oil shocks of 1974 and 1979/80.
The availability of alternative energy sources today could help regulate the possible adversities. Obviously, as oil prices go up, the budget deficits of the OPEC+ countries go down and their economies move up.
However, there is one country that is not very fond of rises in oil prices. And that country is the United States of America.
It is unquestionable that the US will do anything to avoid any disruptions that could harm the safety of the movement oil through the Strait of Hormuz before the elections - Emre Alkin
For a very long time now, the United States has been producing more oil than even Saudi Arabia. At the same time, it consumes the strategic reserves to prevent oil prices from climbing up.
According to experts, the US has been ensuring since Carter to prevent Iran ever from shutting the Strait of Hormuz.
So, it is unquestionable that the US will do anything to avoid any disruptions that could harm the safety of the movement oil through the Strait of Hormuz before the elections.
The Hormuz and Suez bottleneck disrupts the sea freight from China and India to the West. Accordingly, it is likely that China and India will make efforts to prevent this problem from escalating any further.
