The West could have crushed the Kremlin in the early months of the war. However, 2 years in, the Kremlin began to feel more optimistic than ever.
The Kremlin sees an opportunity to defeat Ukraine on the propaganda front, discouraging Ukrainian people from fighting and enabling Putin to win his fifth term as Russia’s head of state using victory over the Ukrainian people, abandoned by the West.
The Kremlin is content to use the vacuum in the American aid facilitated by the isolationists in the Republican Party because it could cause disarray and unrest in Ukrainian society.
The decision by the US Congress to halt and withhold military and financial aid to Ukraine enabled the Kremlin to reinforce its motive, claiming that America should never be trusted and that no one is there to help Ukraine.
The discouraging message that the Kremlin is now sending to the Ukrainian people is clear: surrender, the war is over; America has betrayed Ukraine just as America and the West have betrayed all their allies in the past, including, for example, former Egyptian president, Mubarak.
Creating discontent in Ukraine
The Kremlin is skilfully profiting from the current political deadlock in America using massive fake news and propaganda campaigns.
The goal is to cause unrest and discontent in Ukraine and, at the same time, send messages to all its partners around the world claiming that America could not be trusted due to constant political friction between the Republican and Democratic parties.
The Kremlin is now telling the people of Ukraine that the American model is wrong and that its democracy cannot be trusted. Due to that, no one can rely on America because the Republican and Democratic parties have absolutely different agendas.
Therefore, a country could be an ally of the Republican or Democratic administration but never an ally of the entire America.
A frequent reason for refraining from more decisive aid to Ukraine in the West is the fear of an even more brutal reaction from Russia. However, the Ukrainians see it differently.
And not only Ukrainians. Among the countries in Eastern Europe which had the historical experience of living under the rule of Moscow, no one believes that Putin and his high-ranking professional embezzlers will press the nuclear button and risk losing their billions and comfortable and lavish lifestyle in the Moscow suburbs.
Therefore, since no one in Eastern Europe takes Moscow’s nuclear threats seriously, Ukrainian people and most people in Eastern Europe believe that there must be another reason why America deliberately has refrained from crushing Russia.
This assumption and speculation add to the massive and colourful flow of myths and lies coming out of Moscow, which suggest that Ukraine is doomed and must surrender to Moscow.
It is difficult for Ukrainian people to resist very skilful moral pressure facilitated by Moscow and fight a much bigger enemy on a thousand-kilometre-long front line, given that Putin will comfortably send to war and kill an additional five hundred thousand Russian young men, if necessary.
There is no danger from big Russian cities
Ukrainians and Eastern Europeans who understand how Russia works know that Putin would be ready for actual peace negotiations if the people of Moscow and other large Russian cities start considering alternative political solutions.
This will only happen if the people of Moscow and other large Russian cities start experiencing the actual consequences of the war.
As long as the war has little effect on the citizens of major Russian cities, the Kremlin is not accountable to the Russian people
As long as the war has little effect on the citizens of major Russian cities, the Kremlin is not accountable to the Russian people.
However, most of those Russians who rejected the war were able to escape Russia. Therefore, Putin is very comfortable with how the war has been progressing.
He still does not have to fear the wave of the pacifist alternative, which would emerge from the big cities.
Aware that there is no threat to his war effort from that side and the opening of an internal propaganda front, he can devote himself to benefiting from the West's reluctance to continue providing Ukraine with massive military support.