It has been a week of bad news for Vladimir Putin. They all point out that the consolidation of Western support for Ukraine, which had stalled for months due to the blockade in the politically polarised USA, is now underway.
However, Putin believes that luck will be on his side and that the West is only strong in threats and intentions toward Russia, but very moderate and indecisive in its actual actions.
Nevertheless, some important recent decisions by the West could have devastating consequences for Vladimir Putin:
- After many European governments have done so, Joe Biden's administration has lifted restrictions on the use of American weapons and authorised their use on targets within Russian territory
- The Pentagon is in the process of commissioning a factory in Texas to produce artillery ammunition for Ukraine
- The State Department intends to provide coherent and detailed online educational and informational materials about Russia that explain the true super-aggressive and deviant nature of Russia to Western audiences and people around the world.
- France is sending its instructors to Ukraine.
A response to nuclear blackmail
By lifting restrictions on American arms supplies to Ukraine, Biden's administration is sending a message to Putin that America, together with its European allies, is no longer buying into Moscow's futile nuclear blackmail.
At one point, Vladimir Putin was confident that he could intimidate the West with his nuclear blackmail.
However, he never intended to use nuclear weapons because doing so would destroy his rule and, more importantly, the lifestyle he and his establishment have built over the last 25 years, which has been the primary goal of this order.
Putin believes that America's decision to start producing artillery ammunition for the Ukrainian army indicates its readiness for a protracted conflict with Russia
Putin believes that America's decision to start producing artillery ammunition for the Ukrainian army indicates its readiness for a protracted conflict with Russia.
Russia has gone to great lengths to convince the West that it is better to cede and hand over Ukraine to Russia because, according to Russian propaganda, a prolonged war in Ukraine is harmful to the West.
Behind these efforts to convince the West is the Kremlin's correct conviction that a protracted war is not in Russia's interest, especially because of the irreparable damage it would cause to the national economy.
The online materials that the State Department wants to present to Western and global audiences should provide important information about Russia's true intentions to crack the existing world order and undermine the Western values.
Time for the offensive
All these new developments indicate to Putin that the West believes it is time to go on the offensive, and, more importantly, that it has overcome its internal obstacles to do so.
- To counteract the Russian-sponsored fake news that Russia has massively propagated. This is especially important as the Kremlin has learned to exploit America’s First Amendment to push pro-Russian fake news and misinformation to the American public.
- To allow Ukraine to adequately defend itself by lifting all restrictions and finally allow Ukraine to do whatever is necessary to prevent Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities from military bases in Russia.
- To support Ukraine more strongly and work for Ukraine’s victory.
Putin still hopes that the real actions of the West will differ from the enthusiastic and promising declarations
Vladimir Putin still hopes, however, that the real actions of the West will differ from these enthusiastic and promising declarations.
He hopes that Western governments are only making these decisions to attract voters before the US and EU elections, not out of a genuine desire to help Ukraine even more directly than before.
Has Putin underestimated the West?
His assessment was based on the fact that the US cannot overcome the decision-making constraints arising from the nature of American pluralist democracy, just as Europe cannot overcome internal political divisions.
Putin has underestimated the ability of Western rivals to take drastic measures - HIMARS Artillery System
Vladimir Putin is most accustomed to the fact that the West has consistently disregarded his imperial and aggressive rhetoric.
However, based on this view of the West's behaviour, Putin has underestimated the ability of Western rivals to take drastic measures. He has always believed that the United States and Europe will only use harsh words because they primarily care about their voters.
The West's recent synchronised decisions to increase support for Ukraine could be an unsolvable puzzle for Putin's entrenched mindset towards the West. Provided, of course, that they are implemented consistently and in the short term, because Putin will be hoping for the opposite until the last moment.
